Predictive Performance of NEWS-2 and NEWS-Calcium Scores for In-Hospital Mortality in Older Patients With Acute Pancreatitis

Starting soon

Conditions studied: Acute Pancreatitis (AP), News-2, Prediction of In-Hospital Mortality in Older Patients With Acute Pancreatitis

In brief

Acute pancreatitis is an important gastrointestinal emergency that may lead to mortality, particularly in older patients. This retrospective, single-center observational prognostic validation study aims to compare the predictive performance of the National Early Warning Score 2 (NEWS-2) and NEWS-Calcium scores for in-hospital mortality in patients aged 65 years and older diagnosed with acute pancreatitis in the emergency department. Electronic medical records of eligible patients will be reviewed retrospectively. Demographic characteristics, vital signs, serum calcium levels, clinical outcomes, intensive care unit admission, organ failure, length of hospital stay, and in-hospital mortality will be recorded. NEWS-2 will be calculated using vital parameters at admission, while the NEWS-Calcium score will be obtained by adding a calcium-based score to NEWS-2. The primary outcome will be in-hospital mortality. Secondary outcomes will include intensive care unit admission, severe acute pancreatitis, persistent organ failure, and length of hospital stay. The predictive performances of the scores will be compared using ROC curve analysis, AUC values, and the DeLong test. This study aims to identify the most appropriate early prognostic score for older patients with acute pancreatitis and to support clinical decision-making in emergency settings.

Key facts

Study ID

NCT07640971

Run by

Antalya Health Sciences University

People needed

350

Starts

2026-07-15

Expected to finish

2026-10-15

Last updated by the study team

2026-06-11

Who can join

Age: 65 and older. Sex: any. Healthy volunteers: not accepted.

You may qualify if…

• Age 65 years or older.
• Admission to the emergency department with a diagnosis of acute pancreatitis during the study period.
• Diagnosis of acute pancreatitis established according to clinical presentation, serum pancreatic enzyme levels, and/or imaging findings.
• Availability of admission vital parameters required to calculate the National Early Warning Score 2 (NEWS-2).
• Availability of serum calcium measurement at emergency department admission.
• Availability of in-hospital clinical outcome data.

You may not qualify if…

• Age younger than 65 years.
• Absence of a confirmed diagnosis of acute pancreatitis.
• Missing data required to calculate NEWS-2 or NEWS-Calcium scores.
• Missing serum calcium measurement at admission.
• Incomplete medical records or unavailable in-hospital outcome data.
• Transfer to another hospital before clinical outcome assessment.
• Recurrent admissions during the study period; only the first eligible admission will be analyzed.

Where it is running

• University of Health Sciences, Antalya Training and Research Hospital — Antalya, konyaaltı, Turkey (Türkiye)

Full record on ClinicalTrials.gov

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